第225章 三分球救了四大中锋(2 / 2)
原来你真的是中锋!
今天摸鱼了吗
0 字
2021-12-24
这其实也不难理解,在20世纪70到80年代,中锋这个位置其实已经不作为主攻点了。他们所负责的,是攻防两端控制禁区,是策应。而20世纪90年代中期,中锋单打潮流得以复兴,恰是因为三分球的流行。
1994和1995年火箭夺冠,依赖的是“大梦背身单挑,三分手拉开接应”这个任何看了录像的人都能总结出来的简单概念。某种程度上,鲨鱼之后的三连冠,乃至于2009年魔术围绕德怀特·霍华德杀入总决赛,都是仰仗着“三分球为中锋拉开空间”这个策略。
中锋这个位置,是被三分球救活了一阵子的。在20世纪90年代三分球流行前,单打型中锋,本就快被收缩夹击式的防守给折磨死了,正是多亏了三分球,从而让球队进攻拉开了空间,才得以让大梦、鲨鱼、海军上将和尤因等一众中锋发挥出了全部的威力。
如果非要给前世小球时代中锋凋零找一个人才问题以外的理由的话,那么真正扼杀传统背身单打巨人的,即不是快节奏,也不是三分球,而是2001年的联防规则和2005年的
o-ha
d-check规则,以及进入信息时代后更进一步的数据分析。
联防规则,使夹击内线更加容易;No-ha
d-check规则,则提升了持球突破者的进攻。此消彼长,才令中锋们让位于突破手,不再成为球队进攻的第一选择。
当然,随着2008年后,锡伯度式的“强侧堆叠局部施压防守”的流行,单纯的持球突破手也开始吃瘪,于是全能持球创造者,即能投能传能突也能策动挡拆的外线全能王成为主流,比如詹姆斯。
而数据分析则令这个时代,越来越倾向高效率的进攻方式,即“放弃低效率的中投,尽量袭篮或三分”。由于规则使外围持球手有更高的造罚球率,又自带更准确的三分球,于是中锋们的进攻权重日益下降。自从不知道那个分析师弄出来了真实命中率这个高阶数据之后,好像全联盟突然醒悟了一样原来投三分是不亏的,于是投手们纷纷开始加大三分球的出手比例,直到要么上篮要么三分的魔球理论开始盛行。
但问题就是,所谓的真实命中率,就是很畸形的东西。
它的计算公式是:真实投篮命中率=全场得分[2×(全场出手次数+0.44×罚球出手次数)]
这个0.44是推广这个高阶数据的分析师算出来的,除去2+1和3+1以及技术犯规等的这种罚球,剩下的罚球占总罚球数的比例。
所以显而易见的是,你两分球6投3中和三分球6投2中是一个得分,算出来真实命中率一样,但是前者给了对方3次可以抢篮板快攻的机会,后者则是4次,这能相提并论吗?
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